With Republicans controlling the White House and both chambers of Congress, Tuesday’s midterm elections will determine how much of President Donald Trump’s agenda can advance during the final two years of his second term. The elections are also on track to become the most expensive midterms in American history, with campaign spending projected to approach $12 billion, according to OpenSecrets. Hundreds of millions of dollars have poured into individual Senate contests in Texas, Ohio and Michigan.
Republicans enter Election Day with a 53-47 U.S. Senate majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, since Vice President JD Vance would break a 50鈥�50 tie in favor of Republicans. In the U.S. House, where Republicans hold 219 seats, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reach the 218 required for a majority.
The Senate map initially presented Democrats with a difficult path, with several Republican-held seats up for election in states Trump carried by double digits in 2024. But competitive campaigns in Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Maine and Alaska have expanded the electoral battleground. In the House, closely contested races and rematches from 2024 will help determine whether Democrats reclaim the majority and by what margin.
Among the Senate contests drawing national attention is Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers in a race that has exposed divisions over Israel and antisemitism within the Democratic Party.
Control of the Senate could also hinge on Alaska, where two-term Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan faces former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola.
For Californians following Election Night, the first polls close at 3 p.m. in portions of Indiana and Kentucky, with major battleground states following throughout the afternoon and evening. Early returns may not reflect final results because states differ in how they count mail ballots, early votes and Election Day ballots. Even after California polls close at 8 p.m., the balance of power in Congress may remain undecided long into the night, and into the coming days this week.
Here are the races to watch as the evening unfolds, with all poll-closing times listed in Pacific time.
4 p.m. 鈥� Georgia and Virginia
U.S. Senate 鈥� Georgia: Jon Ossoff vs. Mike Collins
Incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff faces second-term Republican Rep. Mike Collins (R鈥揋eorgia). Ossoff won his seat in January 2021, becoming Georgia’s first 91传媒 U.S. senator. His election, along with fellow Democrat Raphael Warnock’s victory, gave Democrats control of the chamber at the beginning of Joe Biden’s presidency.
Georgia has become a closely divided state in national elections. Biden carried it in 2020 by fewer than 12,000 votes before Trump reclaimed it in 2024 by approximately 115,000 votes.
Ossoff’s positions on Israel have also become a campaign issue. His votes to block certain weapons sales to Israel have drawn criticism from 91传媒 organizations and some Georgia 91传媒 voters. Collins has sought support within the state’s 91传媒 community while facing questions about antisemitic rhetoric associated with members of his extended family and former staff.
U.S. House 鈥� Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District: Jen Kiggans vs. Elaine Luria
Second-term GOP incumbent Rep. Jen Kiggans faces Democratic former two-term Rep. Elaine Luria. Both are Navy veterans. Kiggans served as a helicopter pilot, while Luria served 20 years in the Navy before entering Congress. Luria won the district in 2018 and retained it in 2020 before losing to Kiggans in 2022 by approximately 4%. The district includes Virginia Beach and the Eastern Shore, with military families and defense-related employment playing an important role in its economy.
Trump carried the district in 2024 by approximately 0.2%, even as Kiggans won another congressional term.
With Virginia’s polls closing before those in many other battleground states, this rematch offers an early comparison between Republican and Democratic congressional performance in a state that has become solidly blue over the last decade.
4:30 p.m. 鈥� North Carolina and Ohio
U.S. Senate 鈥� North Carolina: Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley
Former two-term 聽Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper faces former RNCChairman Michael Whatley. The seat is open because Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring. Cooper served as governor from 2017 through 2024, winning statewide elections even as North Carolina voted Republican in presidential contests. Trump carried the state by approximately 3% 聽in 2024. Whatley, who chaired the Republican National Committee during Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, has emphasized immigration enforcement and support for the president’s agenda. Cooper’s electoral history presents an important question: Can a Democrat who won statewide executive elections translate that support into a U.S. Senate victory in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008?
U.S Senate 鈥� Ohio: Jon Husted vs. Sherrod Brown
GOP incumbent Sen. Jon Husted faces former three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown
Brown lost his 2024 reelection bid to Republican Bernie Moreno after serving 18 years in the Senate. But rather than challenge Moreno again, Brown is seeking the other Ohio Senate seat, which became vacant when JD Vance was elected vice president. Husted, a former lieutenant governor and secretary of state, was appointed to replace Vance in January 2025. Ohio has become much more solidly red in the past four presidential elections. Trump carried it by about 11% in 2024. Brown has built his political career around labor issues, manufacturing and trade policy. Husted has emphasized his experience in state government and his support for Trump’s economic agenda. The campaign has also featured disputes over artificial intelligence data centers and the costs they impose on communities.
The Washington Post’s average of high-quality polls conducted between Sept. 15 and November 2 put Brown ahead by approximately 5%. The race has attracted more than $380 million in advertising scheduled between Labor Day and Election Day, according to AdImpact figures cited by the newspaper.
Ohio will provide a test of whether the state has buyer鈥檚 remorse for replacing Brown two years ago.
5 p.m. 鈥� Maine, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania
U.S. Senate 鈥� Maine: Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson
Five-term GOP incumbent Sen. Susan Collins faces former Democratic Maine Senate President Troy Jackson. Collins, first elected in 1996, is seeking her sixth term in a state that has supported Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 1992. In 2020, Collins won reelection despite polls showing her trailing Democratic challenger Sara Gideon. Jackson, a former logger and labor organizer, has represented northern Maine in the State Legislature. His campaign has focused on working-class voters and rising living costs. The state uses ranked-choice voting in federal elections, meaning the contest could require additional rounds of counting if no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes.
U.S. Senate 鈥� New Hampshire: Chris Pappas vs. John E. Sununu
Four-term Rep. Chris Pappas (D) faces former U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu (R) for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Sununu served one term in the Senate before losing his reelection campaign to Shaheen in 2008. Pappas, a former member of the New Hampshire Executive Council, has represented the state’s First Congressional District since 2019. Both candidates have long records in public office. Sununu has sought to distance himself from aspects of Trump’s agenda, while Pappas has campaigned against Republican policies and emphasized affordability. A University of New Hampshire poll conducted October 27鈥�31 found Pappas leading Sununu 54% to 42% among likely voters.
The question is whether New Hampshire’s tendency to elect Republicans to state offices while voting Democratic in federal elections continues in the Senate contest.
Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District: Scott Perry vs. Janelle Stelson
Seven-term GOP incumbent Rep. Scott Perry a former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, facesDemocratic former television news anchor Janelle Stelson
This is a rematch of their 2024 election. Perry defeated Stelson by just 5,133 votes, receiving 205,567 votes to her 200,434. Perry has been among the House Republicans most closely associated with Trump’s efforts to challenge the 2020 presidential election results. Stelson has presented herself as an alternative for moderate and independent voters in the Harrisburg-area district. The race has drawn massive campaign spending. Stelson entered the final weeks with a cash advantage over Perry, according to an October campaign finance analysis by Pennsylvania public radio station WITF. Voters will determine whether Perry can retain his seat after surviving a challenge decided by approximately 1.3% two years ago.
6 p.m. 鈥� Michigan, Texas, Iowa, Kansas and New York
U.S. Senate 鈥� Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers
Former seven-term Republican Rep. Mike Rogers faces former Wayne County health director, DemocratAbdul El-Sayed for the seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Rogers, a former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, lost Michigan’s 2024 Senate race to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by fewer than 20,000 votes. El-Sayed, a physician and rising influential progressive, won a contentious Democratic primary against Rep. Haley Stevens.
It has become the most expensive race in Michigan鈥檚 history, with over $400 million spent.
The race exposed divisions within the Democratic Party over Israel, health care and the direction of the party. Those divisions intensified in the closing days of the campaign. On Nov. 1, Stevens endorsed Rogers, citing concerns about El-Sayed’s associations and his response to antisemitism. El-Sayed has defended his commitment to combating antisemitism, distanced himself from controversial political streamer Hasan Piker and maintained his criticism of Israel.
The election has become a test of the Democratic coalition in Michigan, where 91传媒, Muslim, Black and suburban voters have played important roles in recent statewide contests. There have been widespread reports of divisions among 91传媒 Democrats over whether to support El-Sayed, vote for Rogers or leave the Senate line blank. Michigan voted for Trump over Hilary Clinton in 2016 by 2.1%.聽 In 2020, Biden defeated Trump by 4.5%. In 2024, Trump won Michigan again, with a vote margin over Kamala Harris of only 1.5%
One area worth monitoring is Oakland County, home to substantial 91传媒 communities and voters who supported Stevens in the Democratic primary.
Michigan could also have consequences for the Senate majority. Democrats are defending this seat while pursuing Republican-held seats elsewhere.
U.S. Senate 鈥� Texas: Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) faces state Rep. James Talarico (D) for the seat held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who lost his party’s nomination. Trump endorsed Paxton over Cornyn, a four-term incumbent, during the Republican primary runoff. The decision left Republicans defending a seat with a nominee who has faced years of political and legal controversy.
Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 but acquitted by the state Senate. He also faced securities fraud charges that were dismissed after he completed a pretrial diversion program without admitting guilt. Talarico, a former public school teacher and seminarian, has focused his campaign on education, religion, affordability and government accountability.
Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994 with Lloyd Bentsen, who served four terms dating back to 1970. Trump carried Texas by approximately 14% in 2024.
The Washington Post’s final pre-election polling average put Talarico ahead by approximately four points, while Republican groups held a substantial advertising spending advantage.
U.S. Senate 鈥� Iowa: Ashley Hinson vs. Josh Turek
Three-term Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, a former Paralympic wheelchair basketball player. Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s retirement created the open seat.
Trump carried Iowa by approximately 13% in 2024, continuing a political shift in a state Barack Obama carried twice. The campaign has focused on agricultural costs, tariffs, the economy and the candidates’ records in Congress and the state Legislature. Recent polls have shown a close contest. A Rasmussen Reports survey released in the final days found Hinson at 47% and Turek at 46% among likely voters. Iowa also has competitive congressional and gubernatorial contests, offering another measure of whether changes in voter preferences are confined to one race or extend across the state’s ballot.
U.S. Senate 鈥� Kansas: Roger Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton
First-term incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R) faces Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton (D). Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932. Trump carried the state by approximately 16% in 2024. Hamilton, who leads a large Methodist congregation, has emphasized his religious background and a moderate political message. Marshall, a physician before entering Congress, has focused on his support for Trump and Republican economic policies.
The Washington Post’s final polling average placed Hamilton ahead by approximately four percentage points.
U.S. House: New York’s 17th Congressional District: Mike Lawler vs. Cait Conley
Second-term incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler, a Republican, faces Democratic Army veteran and former national security official Cait Conley. Lawler represents a Hudson Valley district that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. That makes the district one of the relatively few Republican-held House seats whose voters supported the Democratic presidential nominee.
Lawler has built his political identity around his willingness to work across party lines while facing criticism from Democrats over his support for Republican leadership and Trump administration policies.
7 p.m. 鈥� Nevada
Nevada Governor: Joe Lombardo vs. Aaron Ford
First-term incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), a former Clark County sheriff, faces second-term Attorney General Aaron Ford (D). Lombardo defeated Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak in 2022, while Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto won reelection on the same ballot. Nevada has a history of electing candidates from both parties to statewide offices. Trump won the state in 2024 after losing it in 2016 and 2020. Ford has campaigned on reproductive rights, affordability and challenges to Trump administration policies. Lombardo has emphasized economic development, education and public safety.
8 p.m. 鈥� Washington
U.S. House: Washington’s 3rd Congressional District: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs. John Braun
Second-term incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D), a small business owner, faces State Sen. John Braun (R).
The district in southwest Washington voted for Trump in 2024, while Gluesenkamp Perez won another term. Her previous victories came against Republican Joe Kent, who later served as Trump’s counterterrorism chief before resigning in protest over the Iran war. Braun, a longtime state legislator, is seeking to return the seat to Republican control.
9 p.m. 鈥� Alaska
U.S. Senate 鈥� Alaska: Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola
Two-term incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) faces former Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Peltola became the first Alaska Native elected to Congress in 2022. She lost her House seat in 2024 and is attempting to return to Washington through the Senate. Trump carried Alaska by approximately 13% in 2024.
An unusual complication is a third candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher who is not the incumbent senator. His presence on the ballot has generated accusations from Republicans of an effort to confuse voters. Alaska uses a ranked-choice voting system. If no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes, subsequent rounds of counting could delay a final result. Most Alaska polls close at 9 p.m. California time, with the final polling places in the Aleutian Islands closing at 10 p.m.
